Photograph: Davide Monteleone
Global warming is leading to the rapid melting of the cryosphere, and this has triggered a struggle for control of the resources and waterways, especially in the Arctic region. The world is entering a geopolitical era driven by climate change.
On August 2, 2007, the scientific expedition team led by Artic research expert and vice-chairman of the Russian State Duma, Artur Chilingarov dived to the bottom of the Arctic Ocean and planted the Russian flag on the seabed more than 4,000 meters below the North Pole. This action triggered a new geopolitical competition among the countries in the region. After the Russian "flag-planting incident", countries around the Arctic, such as the United States, Canada, Denmark, and Norway, responded quickly by making claims to the territorial sovereignty of the Arctic.
Due to the fact that natural ice bodies are particularly sensitive to increases in global temperature, as the global climate warms, the cryosphere melts faster, causing the resources, navigation channels and military-strategic values of the polar regions to be released. Climate change has become a catalyst for changing the security of cryosphere regions. Marked by the “flag-planting incident”, the world powers, represented by Russia and the United States are increasingly wrestling in the Arctic region. While the world has certainly seen territorial conflict before, the international community is entering a new geopolitical era — a cryosphere geopolitical era driven by climate change.
What is Cryosphere Geopolitics?
The geopolitics of the cryosphere can be defined as international political issues arising from changes in the cryosphere and its components caused by global warming, as well as the resulting competition, conflict, negotiations, cooperation and other interactive behaviors between state and/or non-state actors.. The theory and knowledge system based on systematic research of these issues is what is termed cryosphere geopolitics.
Geopolitical Competition Based on International Law
According to international law, any country can claim ownership of ‘unowned’ areas outside of its territory through discovery and ‘pre-occupation’, and bring it under its sovereignty. After 300 years of separatism and competition since the Westphalian Peace Conference (1648), the world’s land and surrounding shallow waters have been almost completely carved up, and the few remaining international commons are mainly distributed throughout the North and South Poles. As a result, the cryosphere area has become an important target area for competition among major powers in this new era.
Russia ratified the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1997 and applied for the delimitation of the continental shelf 200 nautical miles from the baselines from which the breadth of the territorial sea is measured for the United Nations Commission on the Limits of the Continental Shelf (UNCLCS) in December 2001. This is the first case in which Arctic countries claim sovereignty over the Arctic region based on the principle of natural extension. This move by Russia produced great stimuli to the countries along the Arctic Ocean, which set off a new ‘enclosure movement’. Regarding Russia’s application, the UNCLCS neither confirmed nor rejected it but requested Russia submit more data to prove the rationality of its claims.
Canada also applied to the UNCLCS in 2019. From 2006 to 2016, Canada completed the survey of Arctic Ocean waters required for the delimitation applications. During this period, Canada cooperated with the United States, Denmark, Sweden, Germany and other countries to carry out 17 Arctic Ocean scientific research activities. In 2014, Canada launched a six-week scientific expedition to map the Arctic seabed and collect data. After years of preparation, Canada submitted a 2,100-page application for delimitation of the outer continental shelf of the Arctic Ocean to the UNCLCS in May 2019, advocating for the development of 1.2 million square kilometers of Arctic Ocean waters including the North Pole.
Geopolitical Competition Based on National Power
Although most Arctic countries are improving their military capabilities in the region, Russia is one of the most important actors. Since 2011, Russia has restored many military bases in the Arctic, including some airports and radar stations. In December 2014, Russia announced the establishment of the North Joint Strategic Command to integrate various military weapons and branches. Russia's increasing military presence in the Arctic region and the establishment of the Northern Joint Strategic Command indicate the revival of its "Northern Strategic Bastion Defense" concept. This concept is formed around the core of its Northern Fleet, which is a strategic hub area between three continents, and is regarded as the ‘global Mediterranean’; the Arctic is the shortest path for aerospace vehicles to travel between the major powers in the northern hemisphere. The strategic nuclear deterrent force plays an important role in the international security balance. Controlling the North Pole can carry out a ‘strategic overlook’ of the world's major powers. Therefore, the Arctic region has become the commanding height of global security competition.
As the second largest country around the Arctic Ocean, Canada has held military exercises code-named "Operation Nanook" in the Arctic region every year since 2007, aiming to strengthen Canada’s presence in the Arctic and increase surveillance, as well as combat and disaster prevention capabilities. In May 2019, Canada also announced a 10-year strategic plan for the Arctic region, which included strengthening military deployment and intending to exercise sovereignty over the Northwest Passage.
Conclusion and Suggestions
The geopolitics of the cryosphere is the product of the interaction between human beings and the natural environment; it indicates that the pattern of international interests is about to usher in a major transformation. On the one hand, global warming has caused changes in the natural environment and ecosystems of all circles, which in turn caused changes in the social, political and economic systems of humanity. In particular, resembling the Suez Canal, the melting of ice has brought more technical and economic viability to the development of a new route in the Arctic which will bring significant strategic meaning. On the other hand, due to the endogenous traps in the operating mechanism of the international political system with nation-states as the basic unit of action, the anarchy of the international community determines the logic of competition between countries. This makes the cryosphere a new frontier of interest and struggle for all countries, especially big powers. It’s sincerely hoped, based on the principle of shared common treasure of mankind, all countries will jointly develop Arctic resources and protect Arctic ecology under the framework of reasonable international rules, leaving more room for sustainable development for future generations, rather than the competitive thinking of realistic international relations.
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